This calculator allows you to determine the threshold probability for making a weather-sensitive decision using a probabilistic forecast.  For background information about this computation, refer to this document.

    First, identify a weather event that adversely affects the financial outcome of your business activity.  A forecast of the probability of this event occurring must be available.  Then compute the following three pieces of financial information for your business:
  • L  is the loss that will occur if business proceeds as normal, but the unfavorable weather event occurs.
  • P  is the profit that will occur if business proceeds as normal, and favorable weather occurs.
  • C  is the cost of disrupting or postponing business in anticipation of unfavorable weather
Enter L : Enter P : Enter C : 
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